Texas — ERCOT (Dallas · Houston · Permian)
Dallas–Fort Worth · Houston · Permian Basin · San Antonio
Large-load requests keep exploding — ERCOT's queue passed ~438 GW of proposed large load by mid-2026 (nearly 90% data centers), roughly double the ~233 GW of a year earlier. Yet only ~9,062 MW received Approval to Energize in the prior 12 months and ERCOT observed just ~3,900 MW of actual large-load peak in May 2026 (ERCOT Large Load Update / LLWG) — a request-to-energized ratio now on the order of 100-to-1. New batch-connection rules (PGRR145 / NPRR1325 and the PUCT-approved "Batch Zero" framework, June 18, 2026 — with interconnecting TSP submissions to ERCOT due July 24, 2026) aim to discipline the queue, but ERCOT's connect-and-manage model still energizes faster than anywhere else.
Megawatts per quarter — requested vs energized vs delivered
Faint rose = load requested (queue inflow, padded); solid rose = load energized; green = generation delivered (the supply KPI).
Quarterly throughput
| Quarter | Gen delivered | DC energized | DC requested | Realization |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-Q3 | 2,900 | 350 | 7,100 | 5% |
| 2024-Q4 | 4,200 | 400 | 9,400 | 4% |
| 2025-Q1 | 3,800 | 420 | 12,800 | 3% |
| 2025-Q2 | 4,600 | 450 | 17,500 | 3% |
| 2025-Q3 | 4,100 | 480 | 22,000 | 2% |
| 2025-Q4 | 5,400 | 520 | 28,000 | 2% |
| 2026-Q1 | 5,800 | 650 | 31,000 | 2% |
| 2026-Q2 | 6,200 | 900 | 34,000 | 3% |
| 2026-Q3(f) | 6,600 | 1,000 | 37,000 | 3% |
| 2026-Q4(f) | 7,000 | 1,100 | 40,000 | 3% |
All figures in MW. (f) = forecast. Realization = energized ÷ requested. Requested is gross queue inflow and is heavily padded — it is not energized load.
Anchor tenants & supply
- OpenAI / Oracle “Stargate”Abilene · Flagship Stargate campus1.2 GWEnergizing
- Vistra (generation)Comanche Peak / fleet · Nuclear + gas serving load growth6.4 GWOperating
- MetaTemple / El Paso1.0 GWApproved
- Lancium / CrusoePermian Basin1.5 GWRequested
Queue snapshot
- Generation in queue
- 210 GW
- Data-center load requested
- 438 GW
- Data-center share of load
- 88%
- Active projects
- 1,980
- Typical interconnect wait
- 2.0 yr
Sources
- ERCOT — New Batch Connection Process for Large Electricity Users (June 18, 2026) ↗
- Utility Dive — Texas, facing 438 GW queue, approves initial large-load interconnection process (June 2026) ↗
- ERCOT — Large Load Update, Senate Business & Commerce hearing (April 2026) ↗
- ERCOT March 2026 TAC report (metered large load) ↗
- Utility Dive — ERCOT's large-load queue jumped almost 300% last year ↗
- Sheppard Mullin — PUCT approves "Batch Zero" large-load framework (June 2026) ↗
- Latitude Media — ERCOT large-load queue nearly quadrupled in a year ↗